AGP Executive Report

Fuel Trade: U.S. petroleum exports to Cuba hit a record $74.8 million in August, up 22.4% from July, with diesel and gasoline leading. Yet U.S. authorities seized more than 2.2 million liters of biodiesel bound for a sanctioned Cuban company, adding uncertainty for fuel suppliers. Currency Market: The informal dollar rate held at 775 pesos on Friday, while the euro rose to 872. Retail Prices: A new state market in Cárdenas drew complaints after posting prices on par with or above private businesses, offering shoppers little relief. Economic Reform: Cuba says 158 of 176 approved measures are underway to expand production and partnerships with private and cooperative firms; the challenge is turning reforms into more goods, jobs and regional growth.

Currency Market: The dollar and euro rose Friday in Cuba’s informal market, adding pressure as households struggle with high prices. Pay Delays: Guantánamo authorities acknowledged that workers at state commerce entities and security firm Siprot have not received salaries on time; they gave no payment date. Food and Retail: As state bodegas and ration books fade, neighborhood markets charge near-market prices: a pound of black beans costs 950 pesos, more than a tenth of the average state monthly wage. U.S. Restrictions: New OFAC rules, effective Sept. 30, tighten limits on indirect dealings with restricted Cuban entities and remove some travel authorizations. Separately, U.S. authorities seized fuel shipments worth $2.8 million allegedly bound for Cuba, deepening concerns over energy supplies. Private Trade: Cuba has authorized individuals to import goods for commercial purposes through non-commercial channels, with tariffs charged in dollars.

Fuel Trade: U.S. agencies seized 90 biodiesel shipments worth $2.8 million—about 588,000 gallons—bound for Cuban state-linked ENETEC, as the island faces chronic fuel shortages. Cost of Living: Pizza prices range from 100 pesos at provincial street stalls to as much as 7,000 in Havana restaurants, putting even a familiar meal out of reach for many workers. Currency Market: Informal rates rose Thursday, with the dollar at 775 pesos and the euro at 867, adding to pressure on household purchasing power. Energy Shift: U.S. solar-panel exports to Cuba reached $6.3 million in the first seven months of the year, up 1,070% year over year, as households and businesses seek alternatives to an unreliable grid. Solar expansion has yet to end the blackouts.

Fuel Trade: U.S. authorities seized 71 biodiesel shipments worth about $2.8 million bound for Cuban fuel importer ENETEC and detained 19 more. Havana called the action “piracy” and said Washington has no right to decide who trades with Cuba. Household Economy: New state neighborhood markets in Granma drew criticism over prices: buying 22 displayed products would cost 12,740 pesos, nearly four times the monthly minimum wage. Economic Reform: Cuba is loosening rules for agricultural cooperatives, giving them more room to manage operations, partner with other producers and negotiate sales. Currency and Imports: The dollar and euro edged down in Cuba’s informal market, while the government authorized individuals to import goods for commercial use through non-commercial channels, with tariffs charged in dollars. Private Enterprise: Industriales became the first Cuban baseball team to wear a private company’s sponsor logo, reflecting a wider opening to private business.

Currency and Banking: The dollar and euro slipped again in Cuba’s informal market, while Díaz-Canel acknowledged that banking services cannot be imposed on everyone. Fuel Pressure: U.S. authorities say they seized about $2.8 million in biodiesel shipments bound for state-run ENETEC, tightening pressure on fuel supplies; Cuban officials denounced the interceptions as illegal. Energy Trade: U.S. solar-panel exports to Cuba have climbed to $6.3 million so far this year, up from $500,000 in 2025, as households and businesses seek alternatives to unreliable power. Jobs and Retail: A new report says one in four Cuban workers has an informal job as people seek income beyond inadequate wages and pensions. Meanwhile, the government plans to retain just 1,913 of more than 12,000 ration stores, with some premises shifting to neighborhood markets run by state firms, cooperatives or private businesses.

Fuel Trade: U.S. authorities seized 90 biodiesel shipments worth about $2.8 million, saying they were bound for Cuban state fuel company ENETEC. The investigation into suspected sanctions evasion continues, with exporters not named. Power and Business: U.S. solar equipment exports to Cuba reached $6.3 million in the first seven months of 2026, up sharply from 2025, as businesses and households seek backup power amid repeated blackouts. Import Rules: Cuba has authorized individuals to import goods for commercial use through non-commercial channels, with tariffs charged in dollars—a change that could widen supply options for small businesses. Currency Market: The informal dollar rate held near 770 pesos as the euro fell and the MLC rate rose, keeping exchange-rate volatility a key concern for buyers and sellers.

Cuba–U.S. Talks Stalled: Cuba says it keeps a “channel of communication” with Washington but has not resumed formal negotiations, insisting any dialogue must be on equal footing and without conditions that undermine sovereignty. Currency Watch: In Cuba’s informal market, the dollar held at 770 CUP while the euro slipped to 865 CUP; MLC rose to about 603 CUP (low-volume data), signaling a pause after recent pressure. Customs & Imports: Cuba’s customs set new limits and rules for travelers’ commercial imports and shipments, including tighter controls on items like cell phones, computers, and appliances. Food Quality Concerns: A Pinar del Río shopper reported spoiled condensed milk sold in a state store for dollars, sparking debate over quality control and oversight. Energy & Fuel Pressure: The U.S. announced seizures of fuel shipments allegedly aimed at sanctioned Cuban entities, while Cuba continues to face severe power constraints amid the broader U.S. fuel and energy squeeze. Private Sector & Health Services: Uruguay will change how it pays Cuban ophthalmologists, moving toward direct payments to professionals rather than routing funds through Cuba’s brigade structure. Regional Business Footprint: Damen opened a Panama office to expand maritime services across Latin America and the Caribbean, including support tied to its Santiago de Cuba operations.

Cuba Customs Overhaul: Cuba published new rules letting individuals clear commercial goods through non-commercial channels by paying USD tariffs and fees, with progressive rates (15% up to $2,000; up to 30% above $6,000) and a 30% flat rate for shipments—aimed at tightening control while creating a formal path for imports. Currency & Cost Pressure: Reports say the dollar and euro have shifted again in Cuba’s informal market, adding to day-to-day uncertainty for households and small businesses. Health & Labor Shockwaves: Uruguay will change how it pays Cuban ophthalmologists—moving from money routed through the Cuban brigade to direct professional stipends after U.S. scrutiny of medical-mission payments. Energy & Reliability: Cuba faces ongoing power stress, including forecasts of a major blackout gap at peak demand and continued water disruptions tied to repairs. Tobacco Export Engine: Cuba kicked off the 2026-2027 tobacco campaign with early plantings in Villa Clara and Cienfuegos, targeting higher yields and more contracted farmers to support jobs and foreign exchange. Diplomacy Stalls: U.S.-Cuba “channels of communication” remain open, but negotiations are still blocked, with reporting pointing to Washington’s insistence on political conditions.

Private Sector vs. U.S. Signals: Cuban entrepreneur Aldo Alvarez says Washington’s messaging on mipymes is contradictory—fuel import carve-outs help businesses keep operating, yet the U.S. appears to downplay the private sector’s role. Financial Crime Compliance: A push for an “offensively defensive” approach to sanctions and illicit finance highlights how fast-changing geopolitics is forcing banks to act earlier, not after regulators react. Diplomacy Stalls: Reuters reports Cuba and the U.S. keep “channels of communication” but no formal negotiations—Havana says it’s preparing for possible military action as Trump pressure mounts. Currency Watch: In Cuba’s informal market, the dollar and euro fell at Monday’s close while the MLC jumped, adding to uncertainty for households and small traders. Trade/Imports Rules: Cuba’s customs tightened limits for travelers’ commercial imports and shipments, including dollar-based tariffs for certain goods. Energy Strain at Home: Matanzas’ Máximo Gómez primary school has been without electricity for over 23 days after transformer problems, disrupting classes. Humanitarian Solidarity: Barbados-Cuba Friendship Association marks the Flight 455 anniversary and calls for medication donations as the blockade remains a central economic pressure point.

US-Cuba Diplomacy: Cuba and the United States say they keep “channels of communication” but have no formal negotiations, as Havana warns it is preparing for possible US military action amid a pressure campaign. US Policy Pressure: Marco Rubio’s latest Cuba remarks target the regime’s security and military power centers, signaling Washington’s push for political and economic change from within. Energy & Telecom Fallout: ETECSA reports power-related outages disrupting Nauta and Transfermóvil, with Cuba facing a worsening grid deficit and widespread blackouts. Informal Currency Watch: The dollar eases in Cuba’s informal market (around 773 CUP) while the euro also slips, after recent volatility. Fuel Smuggling Crackdown: US and regional authorities intercept fuel shipments bound for Cuba, underscoring continued pressure on the island’s energy supply. Private Sector & Trade: Cuba expands foreign companies’ access to wholesale markets, while consular events highlight incentives for Cubans abroad to invest in priority sectors. Legal & Public Order: A man in Holguín is arrested over 29 million CUP in cash, sparking social media debate over illicit enrichment claims. Culture & Industry: ICAIC and a French firm sign a distribution deal for Mijain, boosting Cuba-France film ties.

Cuban FX Watch: The dollar held at about 785 CUP while the euro slipped to around 879 CUP, with both currencies still showing a clear upward trend over the past month—another reminder that savings protection remains a daily concern. Energy & Daily Life: Guantánamo highlighted progress under the 176 economic and social transformations, including pension payments for 20,000+ retirees and food support for 49,000+ vulnerable people, while elsewhere Cubans keep testing the grid’s reliability as the Guiteras plant returns to the system with skepticism. Local Protest With Results: In Mayarí (Holguín), women blocked a bridge to demand electricity; power was restored and 14 pounds of rice per person were distributed. Private Sector Visibility: Fuel marketer A Granel began sponsoring Industriales in Cuba’s national baseball series, signaling growing commercial branding by private firms. Agriculture & Markets: Las Tunas hosted a business and opportunities fair linking state and non-state actors, while officials pushed legal and practical implementation of agricultural reforms tied to land and cooperative autonomy. U.S. Pressure on Cuba: The U.S. imposed new financial and travel restrictions on Cuba, adding to the squeeze on entrepreneurs and cross-border activity.

U.S. Cuba Policy: The U.S. imposed new financial and travel restrictions on Cuba, effectively tightening access for private entrepreneurs and ending some educational travel authorizations. FX Watch: In Cuba’s informal market, the dollar climbed to about 785 CUP and is closing in on the 800-peso psychological level; the euro also rose to around 885 CUP. Energy & Transport: Cuba’s Jet A-1 fuel shortage at multiple airports remains a concern even after NOTAM dates expired, while reports point to ongoing power stress and intermittent water supply. Food & Local Economy: Cuba’s food supply woes persist, with “neighborhood markets” presented as an alternative but residents still complain prices stay high; meanwhile, Cuba’s government pushes agricultural transformation via land and cooperative legal tools, with focus on marketing and key staples like meat and milk. Las Tunas Business Push: A provincial business and opportunities fair highlighted links between state and non-state actors, including telecom and solar solutions. Legal/Institutions: The National Union of Jurists of Cuba met in Las Tunas to strengthen procedures ahead of its 10th Congress. Connectivity & Rights: An activist reported selective ETECSA line cuts after detention, underscoring ongoing pressure on communications.

Cuba’s FX pressure: The informal market closed Oct. 3 with the dollar up to 785 CUP and the euro to 885 CUP, extending a month-long climb and underscoring ongoing cash-currency shortages. Fuel crunch on the ground: Havana saw more movement as fuel arrived, but blackouts of 20+ hours still hit households; meanwhile, police in Regla seized 680 liters of gasoline in containers, highlighting theft risks during the worst fuel crisis in decades. Food affordability squeeze: A Havana post put onions at 610 CUP for a small unit (about 19% of the monthly minimum wage), fueling fresh debate over rising staples. Local services under strain: Matanzas residents reported garbage blocking downtown streets after the municipal collection company ran short of diesel, leaving trucks idle. Aid and trade facilitation: A Dutch foundation delivered 11 containers of school supplies and medical equipment to Holguín, Banes and Moa; and Holguín hosted Datacamp Global Lab to help firms navigate export/import paperwork and foreign-currency payment tools. Migration pressure: The U.S. Embassy urged Cubans not to risk illegal crossings, but commenters said legal routes remain blocked or stalled.

Humanitarian Aid: Stichting Cuba Adelante shipped 11 containers of school supplies and medical equipment from the Netherlands to Holguín, Banes and Moa, boosting education and health services amid Cuba’s economic squeeze. Everyday Economy: In Centro Habana, vendors reuse discarded fashion magazines from Reina Street, showing how informal recycling keeps small commerce alive. Household Costs & Access: Testimonies from Camagüey say vulnerable-price cooking oil at supermarkets can be denied based on whether a relative abroad is listed—an opaque rule hitting pensioners hard. Banking Friction: In Las Tunas, cash withdrawals are turning into long waits as connectivity and power issues disrupt bank terminals, adding to islandwide financial strain. Energy & Water: Cienfuegos is adjusting water schedules to better match electricity rotation, while authorities admit 2.7 million people still lack reliable drinking water. Fuel Supply Reality Check: Multiple reports describe U.S. Coast Guard interdictions of Cuba-bound fuel shipments, including the Grace, complicating Havana’s claims that fuel arrivals have effectively stopped. Trade & Finance Networking: Holguín hosted Datacamp Global Lab, focusing on export/import processing, foreign exchange challenges, and tools like letters of credit.

Power & Blackouts: Cuba’s national grid forecasts a 2,070 MW shortfall for Friday’s evening peak, 130 MW worse than the prior night—raising outage risk for households and businesses. Energy & Trade Disruption: The U.S. Coast Guard intercepted the M/V Grace, alleging “dark fleet” tactics while smuggling fuel to Cuba; the ship was escorted to Progreso, Mexico, where fuel was found in ballast tanks. Health Crisis: Cuban health authorities warn of a severe virus surge, citing infrastructure, water, and power failures; dengue and Chikungunya are rising as Aedes mosquitoes spread. Water & Infrastructure Pressure: Communities in Holguín face up to 90 days without service, while authorities discuss “favorable” water reserves. Local Transport & Industry: Las Tunas resumes passenger rail to Camagüey (three trips weekly, 600 CUP) and is building its first “solinera” at a battered terminal, aiming to add renewable power. Humanitarian Funding: The UN released $160M for humanitarian crises, including $150M earmarked for Cuba. Culture & Economy: ICAIC and Galo Films signed a distribution contract for the documentary Mijaín, supporting Cuba’s film export pipeline.

Foreign Trade Reform: Cuba expanded foreign companies’ access to the wholesale market and lets their local offices hire workers directly, aiming to cut intermediaries and lower prices. Sanctions Hit Private Sector: Washington tightened financial and travel rules, including blocking U.S. bank accounts for Cuban private entrepreneurs and restricting certain payments and travel. Energy & Water Resilience: Havana plans 200 MW of solar generation dedicated to water pumping to reduce dependence on the national grid, while distributed generation is set to ease disruptions. Fuel Smuggling Crackdown: The U.S. Coast Guard intercepted a Cuba-bound fuel tanker, citing illicit transfers and coordinating with Mexico. Electric System Security: In Holguín, seven people were sentenced for stealing dielectric oil, with penalties up to 15 years, as authorities warn against sabotage amid the energy crisis. Aging & Social Strain: Cuba’s aging population (26.7% over 60) faces mounting pressure from inflation, shortages, and the blockade, raising the stakes for care networks. Local Care Programs: Camagüey launched a University Chair for Senior Citizens course to expand support and awareness for older adults.