AGP Executive Report

US-Cuba Trade: Washington extended the Cuba trade embargo for one more year, pushing the deadline to Sept. 14, 2027, keeping pressure on Havana’s access to goods and finance. Sanctions & Investment: The US also removed Syria from its State Sponsors of Terrorism list after 47 years, a move framed as clearing barriers to banking and investment—leaving Cuba as one of only three remaining countries on the list. Cuban Economy at Home: With the school year approaching, Cuban mothers report severe shortages in basic school snacks, citing rising prices after the removal of price caps on some imported foods and warning that many children get no meals at school. Private Sector & Property Risk: Guernsey’s GFSC court granted administration for Ceiba Investments, a foreign investor tied to Havana property and hotels, amid US “blocked person” designation concerns. Local Security & Livelihoods: A Havana family says thieves broke in and stole their electric tricycle, a key income source for two minors.

Cuba Power Crunch Meets Solar Reality: With the U.S. fuel blockade and aging grids cutting electricity to about one hour a day for many, Cubans are turning to private solar—yet costs are steep, with one Havana-area family paying roughly $4,000 for panels and batteries, while imports of Chinese solar gear have surged and dozens of solar parks are expanding, including at hospitals. Energy Infrastructure & Theft: Holguín is pushing energy storage forward, with a 50MW BESS project in Cueto moving into final assembly to stabilize the national grid as solar grows, while local reports also flag ongoing theft of dielectric oil and components from electrical equipment. Policy & Sanctions Pressure: President Díaz-Canel says Cuba is not on the verge of collapse, pointing to 176 approved economic measures and more room for private and foreign investment, as the U.S. continues tightening sanctions and targeting Cuban entities and officials. Business/Services on the Ground: Etecsa says a false earthquake alert was caused by a technical error during network tests, and Cuba’s telecom operator is working to prevent repeats. Human Stories With Economic Stakes: A Holguín mother and three children received a cement home via a donation drive, highlighting how housing and basic services remain fragile amid the crisis.

Cuba’s crisis deepens in Havana: Rolling blackouts, fuel shortages and fear are hollowing out Old Havana, with empty streets, scarce cars and people scavenging for food and resale items as violence and long lines at banks and basic stores grow. Fuel squeeze hits households: A global fuel-price roundup says petrol costs jumped sharply since the US-Israel war on Iran began, with Cuba among the biggest increases—raising transport costs and shrinking how far people can travel. Oil and power supply problems worsen: Authorities warned about adulterated oil sales in Mayabeque, while Holguín reports an “epidemic” of dielectric oil thefts from transformers that leaves thousands without electricity. Currency and informal market pressure: The dollar and euro rose at week’s close in Cuba’s informal market, while the MLC trend stayed fragile—signaling ongoing scarcity and pricing stress. Water outages in the capital: Aguas de La Habana said a complex hydraulic failure forced an emergency shutdown of the Central System pipeline, cutting supply to multiple Havana municipalities with no clear restoration date. Sanctions and economic access: Cuba’s leadership again rejected “capitalist reforms,” framing changes as socialist concessions, as the US tightens sanctions and targets more Cuban entities. Social fallout and everyday coping: From counterfeit-dollar scams in Ciego de Ávila to shortages driving riots at cooking-oil stores, daily commerce is getting riskier and harder.

Etecsa Accountability: Cuba’s telecom monopoly admitted its false earthquake alert came from its own “technical-human error” during network tests, after earlier blame on Google—raising fresh questions about reliability and responsibility. Private Sector & Energy Strain: In Villa Clara, the government says it’s pushing small and medium-sized enterprises to export after years of private-sector obstacles, while separate reports highlight uneven electricity access and ongoing theft of electrical components. Banking & Cashflow Pressure: Cuba’s National Assembly demanded new measures after banking failures, as citizens report long lines and stalled services. Sanctions & Trade Friction: Multiple items point to renewed U.S. pressure on Cuban entities and the broader claim that sanctions are blocking efforts to open the economy to private investment. Cuban Diaspora Support: A Tampa-based Cuban delivery worker with one leg received a smart knee prosthesis funded by community fundraising, restoring mobility and spotlighting solidarity-driven healthcare access. Regional Outlook: ECLAC held Latin America’s 2026 growth forecast at 2.2%, warning the pace is too weak to lift living standards.

Cuba’s Informal Market Watch: The dollar stayed steady at about 663 CUP while the euro edged up to around 750 CUP, underscoring ongoing currency pressure and cash shortages. Retiree Support Amid Lines: In Santiago de Cuba, a local venue opened to offer coffee and refreshments to pensioners waiting at the bank, highlighting how retirees cope with low payments and long queues. Villa Clara Export Push: The provincial government urged SMEs to join an export “Booster Program” to reach Europe and North America, targeting agri-food and tech/creative sectors. Energy Crisis in Focus: Villa Clara reported 46 solar “solineras” for phone and lamp charging, but theft hit newly installed solar streetlights in Santiago de Cuba. Price Controls Under Strain: Inspectors in Villa Clara enforced maximum prices for staples, with forced sales and closures after repeated violations. Food Crisis Reality Check: A pork price board showed cuts at 1,400 CUP per pound and lard at 1,900, fueling fresh debate over affordability. Power Theft Case: A technician in Jovellanos was arrested for selling illegal electricity connections after an overloaded transformer explosion. Transport Update: Holguín and Las Tunas received new Yutong buses for interprovincial service to Havana. U.S.-Cuba Friction: U.S. officials detained some Americans returning from Fidel Castro centenary events in Miami for secondary inspections, warning sanctions risks tied to dealings with Cuban entities.

US-Cuba Sanctions: The Trump administration escalated pressure on Cuba by targeting the Ministry of Construction and eight state firms, plus ICAP-linked officials, as Washington frames cultural and educational exchanges as anti-American activity. Labor Law: Cuba’s new Labor Code (Law 189) modernizes rules for remote work and the private sector, but keeps the right to strike unrecognized and preserves the CTC union monopoly. Food Prices: A pork price board circulating online shows cuts at up to 1,400 pesos per pound, underscoring how meat is becoming a luxury amid low incomes. Power & Theft: Granma’s electric company acknowledged internal involvement in theft of dielectric oil and components from the National Electric System, promising full legal penalties. Grid Recovery: Holguín sent 30 linemen to help restore Havana’s electrical service, reflecting ongoing fuel and infrastructure constraints. Public Services Trust: Cuba’s seismology chief rejected ETECSA’s explanation for a false earthquake alert, calling it “malicious.” Markets & Access: With state markets empty, Granmax in Granma is training staff to launch Bayamec.cu, an online store for cereals and grains. International Solidarity: Namibia’s Kavango West pledged support to Cuba through a solidarity campaign tied to the island’s ongoing crisis. Immigration Spillover: A US federal judge struck down Trump’s visa suspension for 75 countries, including Cuba, after ruling Rubio exceeded legal authority.

US Sanctions Tighten on Cuba’s Economy: The Trump administration announced new measures targeting nine Cuban entities and three ICAP officials, including the Ministry of Construction, citing links to “infiltrate, corrupt, and radicalize” Americans and to sectors tied to repression. Food Prices Bite Hard: A Havana store price board went viral, showing staples priced far above typical wages, fueling fresh anger over the food crisis. Public Services Under Strain: In Boyeros, a resident confronted Prime Minister Marrero over corruption and weeks of water shortages; separately, ETECSA admitted a false earthquake alert was caused by its own telecom test error. Cash Crunch Hits Banks: In Guantánamo, retirees and citizens queued for withdrawals at Banco Popular de Ahorro amid liquidity problems, with reports of chaos and people collapsing. Energy Reality Check: A woman in Las Tunas dismantled the regime’s energy promises, saying blackouts and failed gas programs have pushed households back to charcoal. Regional Politics: At Uruguay’s Pan-American Congress, progressive leaders criticized US intervention and sanctions while urging accountability within their own movements. Solidarity Move: Namibia’s National Council donated N$27,609 to the Namibia-Cuba Solidarity Campaign, citing shared history and current hardship.

US Sanctions Escalation: The Trump administration imposed fresh penalties on Cuba, targeting nine state-owned mining, metals and construction entities plus three ICAP officials, including ICAP president Fernando González Llort, as Washington alleges a “subversive network” tied to cultural and educational activity. Cuban Response: President Miguel Díaz-Canel vowed Cuba will “resist and prevail,” saying the new blacklist is part of a “genocidal blockade” and warning the US will face added shame. Higher Education Continuity: Cuba’s Ministry of Higher Education says the 2026-2027 academic year starts September 1 nationwide despite fuel shortages, using decentralization and territorial enrollment through Municipal University Centers and Branches, with blended and distance learning. Publishing & Culture: Ediciones La Luz (AHS) says it presented 17 new titles at the 34th Havana International Book Fair and is pushing e-books and audiobooks to expand access. Demographic Pressure: Reports citing ONEI data say Cuba recorded 136,214 deaths vs 68,064 births in 2025, underscoring the island’s demographic collapse. Regional Humanitarian Context: A migrant caravan “Dreams Without Borders” left Tapachula toward Mexico City seeking work and regularization, including families from Cuba and other countries.

US Sanctions Tighten on Cuba: Washington expanded penalties on nine state-linked firms in construction, mining and metals, and added senior ICAP officials, as Marco Rubio links ICAP to a “subversive network” tied to Fidel Castro’s 100th birthday events. Currency & Informal Market: Reports say the MLC lost another four pesos while the dollar and euro stayed stable in the informal market. Economic Outlook: ECLAC cut its 2026 forecast for Cuba to a 10.3% contraction, while trimming Latin America’s regional growth to 2.2% for 2026. Power & Infrastructure Strain: A theft of dielectric oil from a transformer in Santiago de Cuba delayed urgent medical tests and risks broader outages. Local Life Under Pressure: In Regla, residents protested water shortages; police response included a tanker arriving without a hose, forcing families to carry water in buckets. Humanitarian Links: Namibia’s National Council donated N$27,609 to support medicine, medical supplies and solar kits for Cuba. Migration Signals: Suriname is emerging as a new destination for Cubans, with rising travel inquiries in 2026.

US Sanctions Tighten on Cuba’s Economy: The Trump administration escalated pressure with new OFAC and State Department measures hitting nine state-owned mining, metals, and construction firms, plus ICAP leadership, including the Ministry of Construction—framing the moves as cutting off funding for repression and “subversive” activity. Cuba’s Policy Push for Business Activity: The Council of State approved four decree-laws, including changes aimed at easing rules for micro, small and medium enterprises and self-employment, plus mandatory civil liability insurance for vehicles and updates to bidding rules—signaling a push to expand non-state economic space even as fuel and sanctions bite. Cuba’s Fuel and Power Strain Shows Up in Daily Life: Coverage continues to point to ongoing electricity failures and oil shortages as key constraints on production and services, with knock-on effects for transport and household costs. Crypto/Finance Noise, Not Cuba-Specific: Separate US political and market stories (including wealth-tax debate and banking/tech items) dominated headlines, but the Cuba-relevant economic thread this week is clearly sanctions plus internal regulatory adjustments.

Power Crisis on Isla de la Juventud: Only the hospital and the water pumping system will run on guaranteed electricity while the rest of the island stays dark due to fuel shortages, with residents complaining about lack of clear updates. Local Business Pressure: In Havana, an “offensive” against private businesses is pushing some owners to suspend sales rather than risk heavy fines, tightening already scarce options like food supplies. Inflation Watch: Official data shows July CPI up 2.56% month-on-month, with food driving most of the increase and year-on-year inflation still very high. Informal Market Signals: The dollar holds steady in the informal market while the euro slips, reflecting ongoing currency shortages and shifting demand. Food Reality Check: A viral post about boiling an egg instead of frying it highlights how oil prices and shortages are reshaping everyday cooking choices. Electricity Failure in Ranchuelo: A substation fire leaves Jicotea without power for days, with repairs ongoing and no clear restoration timeline. Sanctions & Health Debate: A new op-ed argues U.S. “maximum pressure” is worsening Cuba’s health outcomes, tying fuel restrictions to deeper system strain. Trade/Policy Note: OFAC clarifies humanitarian trade conditions with Cuba, aiming to reduce friction for aid-related transactions.

Cuba’s Cash Crunch: The Central Bank says distribution of new 2,000 and 5,000 CUP banknotes is rising, but many Cubans report they still can’t withdraw money. Fuel Shock Hits Sports: Cuba’s 65th National Baseball Series will switch to a two-zone, four-group format to cut travel and save fuel amid the energy crisis. Informal Market Moves: The Cuban informal market opens with the currency dollar slipping and the euro weakening, reflecting ongoing liquidity stress. Gasoline Mipyme Backlash: Social media backlash grows after an influencer promotes private fuel Mipyme in Havana, with critics pointing to shortages, long lines, and high informal prices. Banking Access Problems: Reports highlight elderly people left unable to withdraw after a bank branch closure in Sierra de Cubitas. US Pressure, Cuba Security Framing: A US State Department report alleges Cuba runs long-running espionage and political influence in the US, while a US think tank argues Cuba’s ties to Russia/China create risks near Florida. Tourism Air Hit: Iberia extends its suspension of direct flights to Cuba until at least June 2027, citing weak demand and operating conditions.

Cuba’s informal FX: The dollar held steady in the informal market at 663 CUP, while the euro slipped to 757 CUP, continuing a mild euro-down trend. Cimex retail in hard currency: Cimex’s Matanzas paint shop (La Casa del Pintor/“El Fuego”) is selling Cuban-made paint priced in USD or bank transfer, with buckets reportedly running $20–$50—another sign of how everyday goods are being priced around foreign currency. Energy & daily strain: Reports keep pointing to shortages and service disruptions, including telebanking outages tied to UNE electricity cuts, and the broader squeeze on household purchasing power. Cuba migration risk: At least 19 Cubans, including 7 minors, remain missing a week after leaving Pinar del Río; authorities say the search is ongoing. US policy spillover: New US “public charge” guidance for green card applicants takes effect Sept. 18, expanding scrutiny of means-tested benefits—an issue for families with cross-border plans. International pressure narrative: Multiple pieces reiterate Cuba’s stance on the US blockade and international solidarity messaging.

Cuban Energy & Daily Life: Russia delivered humanitarian aid to Havana—food, flashlights and first-aid kits—amid severe power outages and shortages, underscoring how energy stress keeps spilling into basic household needs. Banking Access: Banco Popular de Ahorro closed for days in Sierra de Cubitas, leaving elderly residents unable to withdraw pensions, a reminder that banking disruptions are becoming a recurring economic pain point. Prices & Policy Debate: Economist Pedro Monreal sharply criticized a Cubadebate legal-style piece on prices, arguing it dodges real supply-demand drivers and reflects bureaucracy without a macroeconomic anchor. Local Trade & Survival: In Matanzas, small private businesses are squeezed by higher costs and price caps, with owners reporting thin margins and reliance on remittances. Work & Migration Pressure: A young Cuban father’s viral plea for a job in Havana highlights how economic strain is pushing people into public, desperate job-hunting. Tech/Institutions: In Camagüey, the IT professionals’ union and a university AI node are setting a roadmap to use AI in public administration and local development. Internationalism & Solidarity: A coalition statement renews calls for unconditional support for Cuba against the U.S. blockade, framing the pressure as long-running economic warfare.

Informal FX Watch (Cuba): The informal market closed Monday with the USD slipping to 663 CUP, the euro steady at 760 CUP, and the MLC edging up to about 462 CUP—another reminder of persistent demand for foreign currency and peso purchasing-power pressure. Small Business & Payments: In Santiago de Cuba, inspectors fined self-employed vendors (from 16,000 CUP) for not offering electronic transfers, but merchants say the policy clashes with how they must restock—often needing cash or USD/foreign currency. Energy & Cost of Living: A Cuban woman reported paying $99 for an 8 kg gas cylinder via CubaMax after 20+ days of outages and gas shortages, highlighting how fuel access is becoming both expensive and logistically painful. Debt & Transparency (Spain–Cuba): Spain’s debate is reignited by a Disenso/Foro Madrid report putting Cuba’s debt to Madrid at about €1.97bn and urging Spain to break with the “kleptocracy” framing—while noting the figure has become harder to track since 2021. Cuba–China Tech Link: China’s Qianfan is presented as a satellite internet option for Cuba, pointing to continued efforts to patch connectivity amid sanctions and infrastructure strain. Fidel Centenary Lens: Multiple pieces revisit Fidel’s legacy against today’s Cuba of blackouts, inflation, shortages, and emigration—setting the tone for how economic reality is being discussed.

Cuba’s Sanctions Hit Tourism Hard: A new report says U.S. sanctions have pushed Cuba’s tourism industry close to zero, leaving hotels empty and about 25,000 workers jobless. Medical Transport Upgrade: In Guantánamo, 20 electric vehicles now provide free rides for 124 hemodialysis patients, with plans to shift charging to solar. Informal Market & Prices: Cubans are seeing two-currency swings in the informal market, while everyday costs stay brutal—one calculation puts a month of school breakfasts and snacks above 10,000 pesos. Food & Energy Strain: Cuba’s power grid keeps failing, and shortages remain a daily reality, with reports of outages and rising costs for basic staples. Trade Shock: Mexico’s exports to Cuba collapsed 97.1% year-on-year, tied to a halt in Pemex crude shipments amid U.S. pressure. Policy & Regulation Pressure: A Cuban economist warns the regime’s 176 measures lack a macroeconomic anchor, while critics say inspections and closures are being used to mask deeper problems. Diaspora/Travel Update: Panama extended transit visas for Cubans until 2029, easing airport connections for some travelers. Business Reality Check: A viral video from Havana’s National Aquarium highlights steep private-sector pricing, sparking outrage over affordability. Regional Spillover: Peru declared emergencies after severe flooding, underscoring how shocks ripple into jobs and household stability.