AGP Executive Report

Economic Reforms: Cuba’s President Miguel Díaz-Canel unveiled sweeping economic changes aimed at reviving growth, cutting bureaucracy, easing rules for agriculture, and giving more autonomy to sectors—plus steps to attract foreign investment and expand rights for Cubans abroad. Sanctions Pressure: The UN says U.S. sanctions are worsening a humanitarian crisis, with infant mortality reportedly doubling and childhood cancer survival falling as medical supplies and medicines become harder to access. Currency Watch: In the informal market, the dollar hit a new high of 660 CUP while the euro reached 760 CUP, widening the gap and underscoring accelerating inflation pressures. Everyday Cost of Living: A viral pension experiment claims a 3,000 CUP monthly payment can’t cover basic groceries, with chicken alone priced above the entire pension. Banking Disruptions: Havana residents report ATMs being disabled and long lines at Banco Metropolitano, with retirees facing hours-long waits and repeated cash-access chaos. Human Rights: Cuba’s Observatory of Human Rights recorded 332 repressive actions in May, including arbitrary detentions and communication disruptions. Diplomatic Solidarity: Namibia urged support for Cuba amid sanctions’ impact on fuel and medicines, while Cuba’s ambassador to the Vatican denounced intensified U.S. blockade and war threats.

UN Human Rights Warning: The UN says U.S. sanctions are driving child deaths in Cuba, citing doubled infant mortality and worse childhood cancer survival as doctors lack essential medicines. Economic Overhaul: President Díaz-Canel unveiled a sweeping “Economic and Social Program for 2026,” promising structural reforms across agriculture, foreign trade, investment, tourism and state management, while asking for public ideas even as critics say many measures were already “consensuated.” Inflation & Currency Pressure: Official data points to 15.89% year-on-year inflation in May, while informal-market inflation is far higher; the peso’s sharp depreciation is squeezing household purchasing power. Energy Crisis Fallout: Havana residents face a cooking-gas tariff nearly doubling (to 4.97 pesos per cubic meter), and Santiago de Cuba reports transformer removals with no replacement timeline—leaving families cooking without power. Telecom Sabotage: ETECSA says theft and sabotage knocked out multiple cellular radio bases in Santiago de Cuba, cutting service for thousands. Private-Sector Opening: Cuba is also moving to open more sectors to private business as part of the broader liberalization push. Humanitarian & Solidarity: Colombia sent nearly 100 tons of aid to Cuba, while international solidarity efforts continue amid intensifying U.S. pressure.

Sanctions & Health Crisis: The UN human rights chief says U.S. sanctions are driving child deaths in Cuba, citing doubled infant mortality and worse cancer outcomes as doctors lack medicines. Energy Pressure: Cuba’s government denounces new U.S. restrictions targeting CUPET, arguing the oil squeeze is meant to “suffocate” the population; the fallout is worsening fuel shortages and blackouts. Economic Overhaul: Díaz-Canel unveils reforms to liberalize the economy, expand private activity, give municipalities more authority, and attract foreign investment and renewable tech. Electricity Reality Check: The Antonio Guiteras plant is back online after repairs, but Guantánamo remains intermittently disconnected, underscoring how fragile the grid is. Currency Slide: Cuba’s informal market shows fresh record highs for the dollar and euro, reflecting a widening foreign-currency shortage. Trade & Logistics: A Florida fuel trader halts what would have been the biggest U.S. shipment to Cuba since 1960 after new sanctions add “operational restrictions.” Solidarity Shipments: A Barcelona-based campaign reports 18 containers of medical supplies sent to Cuba, highlighting continued external support amid the blockade.

Cuba’s Economic Pivot: President Miguel Díaz-Canel unveiled a 2026 package to liberalize the economy—more autonomy for state firms, fewer intermediaries in trade, expanded private activity, and a clearer path for Cubans abroad to invest—framed as a response to intensifying U.S. sanctions. Energy & Humanitarian Pressure: The U.S. added Cuba’s state oil-and-gas company CUPET to its sanctions list, and a Florida fuel trader (Vanguard Energy) halted what would have been the largest U.S. fuel shipment to Cuba since 1960, citing new “operational restrictions.” Blockade Fallout: Cuba’s foreign minister says the oil embargo is directly disrupting food and medicine distribution, while the UN human rights chief warned that U.S. sanctions are contributing to child deaths, citing shortages of essential medicines. Local Economy Signals: Díaz-Canel also pointed to decentralizing decision-making to municipalities and simplifying business creation as part of the reform push. Power Grid Updates: Cuba reported repairs to a 110 kV line fault in San Luis and gradual restoration efforts for Guantánamo’s supply. On the Ground Reality: A viral clip shows Cubans converting an old rice cooker into a working electric stove—another sign of how scarcity is reshaping daily life. Other News: A 6.1 earthquake off western Cuba shook Havana and was felt in Florida, with no major damage reported.

U.S.-Cuba Energy War: The U.S. Treasury and State Department moved to sanction Cuba’s state oil and gas firm CUPET, freezing U.S.-based assets and blocking business with the company, as Havana battles fuel shortages and blackouts. Cuba’s leaders hit back, calling it a further tightening of the “economic and energy blockade.” Economic Reforms Under Pressure: Hours after the CUPET sanctions, President Díaz-Canel unveiled a broad 2026 reform package: more private activity, new tourism players, reduced import-intermediation, and wider autonomy for municipalities and state enterprises—aimed at easing shortages, currency strain, and bureaucracy. Humanitarian Fallout: The UN human rights chief warned that U.S. sanctions are contributing to child deaths in Cuba, citing doubled infant mortality and worse access to medicines, including oncology care. Electricity Crisis Watch: Cuba’s grid remains in severe collapse, with the power deficit still massive even as officials promise restarts and new generation—while Cubans report days without electricity and growing frustration. Aid and Logistics: A ship carrying nearly 100 tons of food, medical supplies, and solar/electrical equipment arrived from Colombia, joining other recent shipments from Mexico and Belize. Local Business Friction: ETECSA faced public backlash over “unlimited data” promotions that only work overnight and exclude many users without foreign top-ups.

Sanctions & Energy Shock: The U.S. escalated pressure on Cuba by sanctioning state oil and gas firm CUPET, with Marco Rubio accusing Havana of “weaponizing energy” and diverting fuel while blackouts and shortages worsen; Cuba’s foreign minister Bruno Rodríguez hit back, calling the move “vengeful” and built on “vulgar lies.” Humanitarian Fallout: The UN human rights chief warned the sanctions are contributing to child deaths, citing doubled infant mortality and worse cancer survival as medical supplies run short. Fuel Crisis Reality Check: Energy Institute researcher Jorge Piñón said Cuba’s “zero moment” hasn’t arrived because tankers may have been used as floating storage, but the situation remains critical. Cost of Living Pressure: The informal-market dollar surged to 650 CUP, with the euro also rising and the peso continuing to slide. Local Strain & Protests: Santiago de Cuba saw fresh street protests demanding electricity and food, while Guantánamo reported a major power-line shutdown leaving the province without supply. Solidarity & Workarounds: Europe-backed solar projects are expanding at health institutions, and Holguín’s first solar charging station is nearing operation—small relief against a large squeeze.

UN Human Rights Warning: UN High Commissioner Volker Türk says U.S. sanctions and the blockade are driving child deaths in Cuba, citing doubled infant mortality and worse childhood cancer outcomes as medical supplies and medicines run short. New U.S. Energy Sanctions: The Treasury/OFAC added CUPET, Cuba’s state oil and gas firm, to its sanctions list, freezing U.S. property and banning U.S. transactions; Marco Rubio frames energy as a tool of control while Havana says sanctions punish all Cubans. Cuba’s Oil Refining Strain: Cuban refinery managers describe how the energy blockade forces costly workarounds to process domestic crude, after earlier losses and staff exodus. Tourism & Business Hit: Air Transat/Transat reports a $79M Q2 loss, blaming fuel costs and suspended Cuba flights, while Cuba’s informal market shows sharp gains for the dollar, euro, and MLC. Humanitarian & Rights Pressure: Prisoners Defenders reports a record 1,281 political prisoners at end-May, tied to protests over shortages and power outages. Labor Congress Dates: Cuba’s CTC workers’ federation will hold final sessions June 26–27 via videoconference, focusing on boosting production, food and energy transformation, and worker participation. Media/GAESA Pushback: Cuba’s state media highlights GAESA’s role in joint ventures under Decree-Law 114 as the U.S. tightens sanctions.

Fuel Deal Watch: A Coral Gables firm, Vanguard Energy, finalized an agreement to lease Cuban storage and ship up to ~250,000 barrels per trip for sale to Cuba’s private sector, with safeguards meant to keep fuel from state diversion—potentially easing shortages behind frequent blackouts. Sanctions & Human Rights: The White House defended new Cuba sanctions after UN chief Volker Türk warned they are causing “widespread harm,” while Cuba’s foreign minister said the U.S. energy blockade is blocking aid deliveries and harming access to water, food, and healthcare. Energy Pressure on Daily Life: Cuba says the U.S. energy ban hampers UN agencies and that fuel shortages are preventing essential items from reaching beneficiaries; Havana also faces ongoing waste and diesel constraints as collection trucks sit idle. Security Rhetoric: U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned Cuba against seeking weapons that could reach the U.S. homeland or Guantánamo Bay, as Washington tightens pressure and signals military “options.” Health & Industry Resilience: Cuba highlighted the reactivation of production of 16 cytostatic drugs for cancer patients despite “severe” blockade and energy limits, underscoring biotech as a key economic and public-health lifeline.

U.S.-Cuba Tensions Escalate: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned Cuba during a Guantanamo Bay visit that it would be “unwise” to seek weapons that could reach the base or the U.S. homeland, saying such moves would invite confrontation Havana “could not stand.” Diplomatic Pushback: Cuba’s top envoy in Washington, Lianys Torres Rivera, told AP the latest sanctions on Cuban leaders and the Raúl Castro indictment are a “pretext” to convince Americans to back military intervention, calling the situation “a war without bombs.” Energy Crisis Angle: Multiple reports tie the pressure campaign to a fuel blockade that has worsened outages and economic strain, while Cuba denies claims of military buildup. Health System Strain: Cuba’s health ministry says surgical backlogs now hit about 95,000 patients, including 5,000+ cancer cases, citing sanctions, supply shortages, and power disruptions. Tourism & Business Pressure: Foreign tourist numbers are thinning and airlines/hotel operators are scaling back or exiting amid the deepening crisis.

Tourism Slowdown: Reuters reports Cuba’s once-bustling sites in Old Havana and Varadero are seeing a sharp drop in foreign visitors, with major hotel and travel firms cutting back or leaving amid sanctions, shortages, and power problems. Energy & Private Sector Fuel: A Florida company is preparing what would be the biggest U.S. fuel shipment to Cuba since the embargo, but volumes are tiny versus national needs; the policy allows sales only to Cuba’s private sector, not the state. Humanitarian Pressure: UN High Commissioner Volker Türk says U.S. sanctions are driving child deaths and medical shortages, citing rising infant mortality and strained cancer care. Diplomatic Escalation: Cuba’s top envoy in Washington calls new sanctions and the Raúl Castro indictment a “pretext” for U.S. military intervention, framing it as a “war without bombs.” Legal & Labor Reform: Cuba’s parliament published draft laws on the Labor Code, agricultural land, housing, and central state administration—aimed at updating rules for work, land use, and governance. Migration Flows: Brazil intercepted 108 Cuban migrants in Roraima and arrested five alleged smugglers, highlighting growing routes through Guyana.

Cuba’s food policy shake-up: Cuba published a draft law to scrap the independent Ministry of Agriculture and create a “super ministry” (Agro-food) to centralize farming, food industry, sugar, fishing and forestry—aiming to tighten state control as the sector struggles with fuel shortages and falling output. Sanctions pressure and health fallout: The UN’s human rights chief warned that tighter U.S. sanctions are driving child deaths and worsening access to medicines and essentials, while the U.S. says humanitarian goods can still flow through proper channels. Currency hit: The informal market dollar jumped to a record 630 CUP (euro 710; MLC 425), with the peso down sharply in 2026. Geopolitics and “three scenarios”: President Díaz-Canel said Washington is weighing social unrest, economic seizure, or military aggression—while Cuba’s deputy foreign minister argues the “problem” ends if the U.S. stops its “aggression.” Regional shock: A 6.1 earthquake off Cuba was felt across south Florida, prompting precautionary evacuations and ride shutdowns at Disney World. Legal and justice infrastructure: Guantánamo inaugurated a new Provincial People’s Court headquarters, expanding courtrooms across criminal, civil, commercial and labor areas.

U.S.-Cuba Pressure & Sanctions: Cuba’s president Miguel Díaz-Canel says Washington is weighing three paths—economic strangulation to spark unrest, coercive “dialogue” to seize control of the economy, or military aggression—while the U.S. rolls out fresh sanctions targeting Díaz-Canel, the Castro family and military-linked entities, and the UN human rights chief Volker Türk warns the fuel restrictions and extraterritorial measures are harming civilians, including children. Humanitarian Aid Flows: Amid the squeeze, Mexico and Belize delivered about 1,700 tons of food and medical supplies to Havana, with Díaz-Canel thanking Cuba’s diaspora and allies for “brotherhood” support. Energy & Daily Life: Cuba’s fuel crisis is hitting livelihoods and tourism—Havana’s iconic vintage cars are cutting trips as gasoline runs short—while reports also point to worsening blackouts and shortages. Geopolitics & Food Security: A new report warns geopolitics is driving more food crises and urges “resilient self-reliance.” Natural Disruption: A 6.1 earthquake off Cuba’s coast shook parts of Cuba, Mexico and Florida, prompting evacuations and closures in Miami and elsewhere. Travel Advisory: The Bahamas urges citizens to avoid non-essential travel to Cuba due to electricity, fuel, transport and goods shortages.

UN Human Rights Pressure: UN rights chief Volker Turk urged the U.S. to lift Cuba sanctions, saying fuel restrictions and tightened extraterritorial measures are harming children and endangering lives. U.S.-Cuba Sanctions Escalation: President Díaz-Canel and Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez denounced new U.S. Treasury additions to sanctions lists targeting Cuban leaders, institutions, civil society and companies, calling it an attempt to strengthen the blockade. Humanitarian Aid Flows: A ship carrying 1,700 tons of food and basic necessities arrived in Havana from Mexico and Belize, with Cuba thanking both governments and noting logistics were sped up despite the energy blockade. Energy Crisis Impact: Reports say the U.S. oil blockade has left gas stations empty for months and worsened blackouts, with residents describing days without electricity and rising black-market fuel prices. Regional Growth Warning: ECLAC projects Latin America’s growth at 2.2% in 2026, with Cuba’s contraction deepening to -6.5% as Haiti and Cuba weigh on the region. Tourism & Travel Shock: Major Canadian airlines suspended Cuba flights indefinitely, adding pressure to an already strained economy. Fuel Smuggling Crackdown: MININT intercepted a tanker truck with 6,000 liters of fuel oil in Sancti Spíritus, pointing to an illegal distribution network. Local Market Reality: A Holguín secondhand market story highlights how Cubans increasingly rely on repaired goods and informal trade to get by.

Power & Water Crisis: Havana residents describe days without electricity and water, with mosquitoes and neighborhood cacerolazos growing as rolling blackouts worsen. Humanitarian Fallout: UN briefings warn hospitals are suspending surgeries and medicine shortages are delaying care for over 100,000 patients, including 12,000 children. Tourism & Payments Hit Hard: Visa and Mastercard operations in Cuba are set to suspend after foreign banking partners cut ties with FINCIMEX, while major hotel groups and Canadian airlines (Air Canada, WestJet, Sunwing, Air Transat) suspend Cuba flights indefinitely. Sanctions Pressure on Business: The Wall Street Journal frames a corporate exodus as a turning point, with foreign firms citing US sanctions and GAESA-linked risk. Diaspora Investment Push: Cuba’s foreign ministry promotes a new channel for emigrants to invest in and manage hotels and partner in micro, small, and medium enterprises. Aid & Shortages: Cuba received 1,700 tons of basic goods from Mexico and Belize to ease shortages amid the energy and economic crisis. Local Transport Rules: Matanzas threatens license revocations for state drivers who refuse passenger pickups, reflecting a broader mobility crunch.

Tourism Shock: Canada’s Air Canada, WestJet and Air Transat have suspended all Cuba flights and vacation packages indefinitely, citing Cuba’s worsening political and economic uncertainty and the island’s fuel and power crisis—another blow after earlier pauses. Financial Squeeze: Cuba’s central bank says Visa and Mastercard transactions for non-U.S. visitors will stop starting Saturday, while the informal market shows the dollar hitting a new record of 620 CUP and the euro 705 CUP, underlining eroding purchasing power. Sanctions & Corporate Exit: Miami-Dade revoked business tax receipts for three companies tied to unauthorized cement shipments to Cuba, as foreign firms keep pulling back amid U.S. pressure. Energy & Daily Life: Cuba’s currency slide and blackouts continue to hit households hard, with reports of spoiled food, limited water/electricity, and survival routines. Humanitarian Aid: A ship carrying 1,700 tons of food and essentials arrived from Mexico and Belize as the crisis deepens. Governance & Labor: Cuba’s CTC congress sessions will be held via videoconference June 26–27 due to austerity and the energy crisis.

U.S. Sanctions Tighten on Cuba’s Security Network: Washington imposed new sanctions on Cuban military instrumentalities and other actors tied to “subversive anti-American activities,” targeting entities and individuals linked to the regime’s global outreach. Humanitarian Fallout Claim: Cuba’s foreign minister Bruno Rodríguez said children are bearing the brunt of the blockade, citing a sharp rise in infant mortality and worsening outcomes for children with cancer. Tourism Contract Shock: Indonesian chain Archipelago International confirmed it is exiting Cuba, joining other hotel pullouts as U.S. pressure on GAESA accelerates and the tourism sector keeps shrinking. Payments and Access Strain: Reports say Visa and Mastercard access is set to stop functioning in Cuba from June 6, while Cubans also complain that many small businesses won’t accept bank transfers—forcing cash-only shopping. Energy and Daily Life Pressure: Residents in Nuevo Vedado and elsewhere complain about ETECSA generator noise and ongoing blackouts; separate coverage highlights fuel and infrastructure strain hitting services. Food System Stress: Cuba’s food industry minister admitted wheat mills are inactive or barely operating, regulated bread coverage is limited, and 2026 wheat deliveries have been disrupted. Local Economy Stress Stories: A Bayamo bicitaxi driver said tire theft destroyed his livelihood; in Santiago de Cuba, customers denounced moldy, decomposing regulated bread. Tech/Connectivity Reality Check: ETECSA touts a WSIS award for its online services, but coverage notes slow internet speeds and persistent dissatisfaction after prior rate hikes. Opposition and Repression: A Havana influencer behind “Despingovery” parody documentaries says he’s been silenced after arrest, while other opposition voices warn of a worsening crisis.