AGP Executive Report

CARICOM Solidarity Under Strain: Guyana and Trinidad & Tobago reserved their positions on CARICOM’s statement condemning intensifying U.S. economic and financial measures against Cuba, even as the bloc warned the squeeze is worsening humanitarian conditions for Cubans and for Caribbean nationals studying or living on the island. Humanitarian Fallout: A Jamaican medical student in Cuba described daily 12–20 hour power outages, internet blackouts, scarce food, and disrupted schooling—an on-the-ground snapshot of the fuel-and-food crisis. Legal Risk for Businesses: The U.S. Supreme Court expanded Helms-Burton liability in Havana Docks v. Royal Caribbean, opening the door to claims tied to confiscated Cuban property even when former owners no longer had an interest. Tourism Slump: A Swiss-owned tour operator says Cuba tourism has collapsed under U.S. pressure, with visitor numbers falling from thousands to about a dozen a month, while Cuba’s Q1 international arrivals reportedly dropped sharply. Diplomacy & Media Pressure: Cuba’s foreign minister accused Spain’s El País of running an editorial campaign based on reporting from outside the island, amid escalating U.S. pressure.

U.S.-Cuba Security Tensions: Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters Cuba is a “national security” problem for Washington, while Trump’s team weighs next steps amid new legal pressure tied to Raúl Castro. Regional Diplomacy: CARICOM foreign ministers condemned U.S. threats and measures, stressing Cuba’s right to import fuel and warning the situation is worsening for both Cubans and Caribbean residents. Energy Crunch: Cuba’s energy crisis remains front and center, with reports of fuel supply disruptions and renewed debate over how sanctions translate into daily shortages and blackouts. Sanctions & GAESA Pressure: The U.S. escalated economic pressure by targeting GAESA and revoking green-card status linked to top figures, adding to uncertainty for investment and trade. Territorial Development (Cuba): Holguín reviewed 2026 plans to strengthen municipal autonomy and territorial development, focusing on cutting bureaucracy and better using local resources. Humanitarian/Trade Links: Cuba’s UN Security Council intervention again framed U.S. actions as violating international law and deepening humanitarian hardship. Maritime Supply Setback: A Russian diesel tanker reportedly failed to reach Cuba after weeks at sea, underscoring how hard fuel logistics are getting.

U.S.-Cuba Pressure Escalates: Cuba’s foreign minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla hit back at Marco Rubio, calling Washington’s “energy blockade” and “military threat” a lie and warning the world to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe at the UN Security Council. Energy Crisis Meets Sanctions Reality: Cuba says its oil reserves are exhausted under U.S. pressure, as a Russian diesel tanker (Universal) reportedly sped up and veered away from Cuba after weeks at sea—another sign of how fuel shortages are tightening daily life. Diplomacy vs. Threats: Rodríguez also framed the Raúl Castro indictment as part of a political narrative aimed at justifying aggression, while Rubio continues to argue Cuba is a “national security threat.” Migration Fallout: A new Human Rights Watch report says the Trump administration has deported thousands of Cubans to Mexico, often older and medically vulnerable, leaving many in legal limbo without shelter or care. Influence Probe Fallout: Twitch streamer Hasan Piker’s Cuba trip is still roiling U.S. politics after he publicly named a China-based financier tied to left-wing groups, as federal scrutiny continues.

Cuba-US Pressure & Security: The U.S. is ramping up scrutiny and signaling harder lines as Washington logs more than 150 surveillance-flight hours around Cuba since February and keeps warning Havana amid the fallout from Raúl Castro’s indictment. Humanitarian & Economy: China’s latest rice shipments—reported at 15,000 tons—arrive as Cuba’s fuel crunch and blackouts keep worsening, while the island publishes names of prisoners covered by a broad amnesty meant to ease tensions with Washington. Diplomacy & Influence: A wider U.S. probe into alleged foreign influence is also in focus, with reports tying the Hasan Piker/CodePink Cuba trip to a broader federal investigation involving Cuban diplomatic contacts. Regional Context: The week’s broader geopolitical drumbeat includes U.S.-Iran strike-and-talks activity and renewed Lebanon escalation, underscoring how Cuba is being pulled into a wider security narrative. Business & Daily Life: On the ground, Cubans keep leaning on home delivery as outages and shortages reshape routines, even as pharmacies struggle to stay open.

China Aid Push: Cuba says a massive 15,000-ton rice shipment has arrived from China, with another 60,000 tons expected—an immediate pressure release as food and fuel shortages deepen. Energy Crisis: The grid is still breaking down: the Guiteras plant in Matanzas is undergoing inspections after a new breakdown, while the electric deficit is reported at record levels and blackouts keep stretching. US Pressure, EU Backlash: Cuba’s foreign minister hits back at EU chief Kaja Kallas, calling the EU’s stance “double standards” that ignores the US blockade and oil siege; Washington also keeps tightening the screws. Legal/Regime-Change Escalation: The US moves forward with fresh legal pressure tied to Raúl Castro, while activists face a widening foreign-influence probe. Human Impact: Tourism keeps sliding—nearly half a million fewer travelers in four months—while daily life stories show how outages and shortages are reshaping routines.

Legal Pressure & Sovereignty: The U.S. indictment of Raúl Castro over the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown is being framed as a deliberate escalation, with Cuba denouncing it as a sovereignty attack and China/Russia promising “active support” against unilateral pressure. Foreign-Influence Crackdown: At the same time, U.S. Treasury/DOJ scrutiny is widening into Cuba-linked activist networks, with subpoenas reported for Hasan Piker and CodePink cofounder Medea Benjamin over “humanitarian” Cuba trips and possible sanctions violations. Humanitarian Squeeze: Cuba’s crisis is getting sharper on the ground: the electric deficit is reported above 2,100 MW and blackouts are stretching long, while China’s rice aid—15,000 tons, part of a 60,000-ton package—arrives as fuel and food shortages worsen. Energy Policy Shift: Cuba also raised the tariff for surplus renewable power exported to the grid to CUP 90/kWh, aiming to pull more renewables into a strained system.

Humanitarian Supply Shock: Cuba received the first 15,000 tons of China’s promised 60,000-ton rice donation, with President Díaz-Canel calling it solidarity aimed at millions of consumers plus health and education. Energy Strain: The delivery lands as blackouts and fuel shortages keep worsening, with reports of large-scale outages and daily life disruptions. U.S. Pressure Escalates: Washington’s hard line is also intensifying through sanctions and legal moves, including a federal probe into left-wing streamer Hasan Piker and CodePink co-founder Medea Benjamin over their March “Nuestra América” Cuba trip. Political Temperature Rising: Cuba’s UN mission marked African Liberation Month in Harlem, while Cuban officials and writers argue the government’s job is citizen well-being—not “belligerent” posturing—highlighting the growing debate over how to navigate the crisis. Regional Ripple: Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro ordered surplus rice to be sent to Cuba, responding to China’s shipment and underscoring how food aid is becoming a fast-moving diplomatic battleground.

Cuba-US Tensions Spike: Marco Rubio says Cuba is a “national security threat” and that a peaceful deal is “not high,” as the U.S. leans on a fresh indictment of Raúl Castro tied to the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown—while Havana calls the move a sovereignty-busting pretext. Legal Pressure at Home: The U.S. Treasury has issued subpoenas to Twitch streamer Hasan Piker and CodePink cofounder Medea Benjamin over a March “Nuestra América Convoy” trip, probing whether sanctions rules were broken. Economic Strain, Fast: The dollar hit a new record in Cuba’s informal market for the third straight day (560 CUP), while MLC slipped to 400 CUP—signaling worsening pressure on households and private business. Energy & Daily Life: Cuba’s crisis backdrop continues with reports of fuel and power shortages and even enforcement actions like gas-cylinder confiscations in Villa Clara. Diplomacy & Mobility: Separate from Cuba, Rubio told India visa changes are global “modernisation,” not India-specific—an echo of how migration rules are tightening alongside geopolitical pressure.

US-Cuba Pressure Escalates: The Trump administration’s Cuba push sharpened again as Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned Havana is a “national security threat” and said a peaceful deal is “not high,” while Cuba fired back with a sovereignty warning over its airspace. Legal & Sanctions Push: Washington also moved on multiple fronts—new sanctions on Cuban security/intelligence figures and agencies, plus subpoenas to pro-Cuba influencers Hasan Piker and Susan Medea Benjamin tied to March trips. Military Posture: The USS Nimitz carrier group’s Caribbean arrival kept fears of escalation alive as the Raúl Castro indictment (over the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown) fueled talk of a Venezuela-style playbook. Humanitarian Fallout: The Congressional Black Caucus demanded an end to the oil blockade, citing worsening civilian conditions. On-the-ground strain: Cuba’s power crisis continues to spark anger, including reports of repeated blackouts and equipment damage.

U.S.-Cuba Talks Under Fire: Marco Rubio says a diplomatic deal is “not high” as Trump keeps ratcheting pressure, with the Raúl Castro indictment and fresh military posturing feeding a sense that Washington is moving from negotiation to leverage. Legal Pressure, Real-World Fallout: The U.S. Supreme Court revived major lawsuits tied to confiscated Cuban docks, keeping the Helms-Burton fight alive for cruise operators as Havana braces for more economic pain. Humanitarian Strain at Home: On the island, blackouts, fuel shortages, and food scarcity are pushing people to improvise—solar to charcoal—while daily life in Havana’s neighborhoods shows how quickly outages turn into shortages. Geopolitical Echoes: Analysts warn Trump’s Cuba approach resembles the Venezuela playbook, but Cuba lacks Venezuela’s clear succession path. External Pushback: Iran’s foreign ministry condemned U.S. “crimes against humanity” in Cuba, while Cuba and allies denounce the sanctions as a sovereignty violation. What’s Missing: There’s less clarity on what a “deal” would look like beyond prisoner demands and property compensation.

US-Cuba Escalation: Cuba’s foreign minister Bruno Rodríguez says Marco Rubio’s claims are “lies” meant to justify military aggression after the US unsealed charges against Raúl Castro over the 1996 “Brothers to the Rescue” shootdown, as Havana calls it a pretext for invasion and points to decades of blockade. Pressure Campaign Moves: Washington also tightened the screws via immigration enforcement, including the arrest of Adys Lastres Morera after Rubio terminated her green card—linked to GAESA, the military-linked conglomerate at the center of the economic squeeze. Public Backlash in Havana: Tens of thousands rallied outside the US embassy under “Raúl is Raúl,” while Cuba’s leadership warns of a “bloodbath” if attacked. Military Posture: The USS Nimitz strike group arrived in the Caribbean, and Rubio said diplomacy is “not high” while the US prefers a “diplomatic solution.” Legal Fallout for Cuba’s Economy: The US Supreme Court opened the door for Havana Docks to seek compensation from cruise operators tied to confiscated port assets. Energy Crisis Context: Blackouts and fuel shortages keep worsening as the standoff intensifies.

Military Pressure Escalates: Trump says it “looks like I’ll be the one” to intervene in Cuba, while Rubio calls Havana a “national security threat” and admits diplomacy is unlikely to work. The warning lands a day after the U.S. unsealed criminal charges against Raúl Castro over the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown, and as Washington keeps tightening the screws with sanctions and a fuel squeeze. Legal & Political Countermoves: Democrats in the Senate are again pushing a war-powers measure to block unauthorized Cuba strikes, arguing the indictment could be a pretext. Pressure at Home: In Miami, ICE arrested Adys Lastres Morera, linked to GAESA, and revoked her green card—another signal that the campaign is reaching beyond the island. Cuba’s Response: Havana denounces the claims as “lies” and warns any attack would trigger a “bloodbath,” as blackouts and fuel shortages continue to hit daily life. Humanitarian/Local Pulse: Meanwhile, Holguín received new ambulances to bolster emergency care.

Castro Indictment Escalates: The U.S. sharpened its Cuba pressure after indicting former leader Raúl Castro over the 1996 downing of civilian planes, with Trump again floating possible military action and Rubio warning diplomacy is unlikely and Havana can’t “buy time.” GAESA Crackdown: ICE arrested Adys Lastres Morera in Miami after Rubio revoked her green card, citing ties to GAESA, the military-linked conglomerate Washington says dominates Cuba’s economy. Caribbean Show of Force: The USS Nimitz strike group arrived in the Caribbean as the legal and political pressure campaign intensified. Cruise-Port Legal Shock: The U.S. Supreme Court cleared the door for lawsuits under the Helms-Burton/Libertad framework, ruling cruise lines can be sued over use of confiscated Havana docks—potentially setting up major payouts. Global Pushback: China and Russia condemned the indictment and urged the U.S. to stop using “judicial” pressure and threats.

Cuba Pressure Escalation: The U.S. moved the Cuba fight into a new gear with the DOJ indictment of former President Raúl Castro over the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown, as Trump and Rubio push a “new path” aimed at bypassing Cuba’s military-linked economy. Diplomatic Pushback: China warned Washington to stop “judicial” and coercive pressure, backing Havana against what it calls external interference. Legal Pressure Beyond Politics: The U.S. Supreme Court also revived Helms-Burton claims tied to Fidel Castro-era confiscations, dealing cruise operators another setback and reopening compensation fights for companies tied to Havana docks. Security Posture: The USS Nimitz arrived in the Caribbean as U.S. officials weigh options, while Cuba’s leaders warn any move would trigger a “bloodbath.” Data Privacy Spillover: Separately, U.S. lawmakers flagged gaps in rules meant to block location-data sales near sensitive sites—an issue that could matter for national security as tensions rise.

Legal Pressure Escalates: The U.S. indicted 94-year-old former Cuban President Raúl Castro on murder and conspiracy charges tied to the 1996 shootdown of two civilian planes operated by the Miami exile group Brothers to the Rescue, killing four people. Diplomatic Pushback: Cuba’s government called it a “political maneuver” with “no legal basis,” while U.S. officials framed the case as accountability for Americans. Military Signaling: As the indictment landed, the USS Nimitz carrier strike group moved into the Caribbean, underscoring rising U.S.-Cuba tensions. Economic Fallout Context: The move comes amid Cuba’s worsening energy and humanitarian strain, with Washington also pressing Havana through sanctions and oil pressure. Local Reality Check: Even state retailers are pitching energy fixes—like a solar fan sold online—at prices far beyond most Cubans’ monthly pay.

Raúl Castro Indictment Looms: The U.S. Justice Department is expected to indict former Cuban leader Raúl Castro on Wednesday over the 1996 shootdown of two Brothers to the Rescue planes, a case that could sharply raise fears in Cuba—and expectations in Miami—of a wider U.S. push, even military action. Independence-Day Messaging: Hours before the expected announcement, Secretary of State Marco Rubio released a Spanish video telling Cubans the “new relationship” is meant to bypass GAESA and blaming the island’s shortages on Cuba’s military-linked elite, while offering $100M in food and medicine routed through the Catholic Church. Escalation Backdrop: The indictment threat lands amid an energy and power crisis worsened by U.S. pressure, with Havana warning that any attack would trigger a “bloodbath.” Broader Pressure Campaign: The week’s coverage also ties the legal move to a wider hardline strategy—sanctions on Cuban officials and intensified U.S.-Cuba tensions—while Cuba denies drone-threat claims and rejects the premise of U.S. “aid” as anything but coercion.